On January 16, 2020, Prof. Kavitha Ranganathan, Associate Professor (Finance and Strategy) at TAPMI, commenced day four of the fourth annual edition of Winter School with a lecture on “Heuristics for financial-decision making”.
Prof. Kavitha began with an overview of the various contributors to the concept of bounded rationality and elaborated on the views of late American economist and political scientist Herbert Simon. She then delved into the evolution of heuristics and its associated methodological principles. Two specific heuristics — satisficing and anchoring — were discussed in detail. Prof. Kavitha then demonstrated that satisficing and anchoring heuristics play a key role in the behaviour of actors in the Indian stock market. She argued that the 52-week high price serves as a good anchoring heuristic for small-cap companies in the stock market.
During the next session, Prof. Konstantinos Katsikopoulos, Associate Professor at the University of Southampton, delivered a lecture on “The Art and Science of Transparent Decision-Making”. He explained that an environment of uncertainty is also highly unstable — a phenomenon he termed as ‘wild’ — and how trade-offs occur between accuracy and transparency.
The two main arguments he presented in the session were “Simple rules do well in the wild” and “Transparency is a key value”. Dr. Katsikopoulos cited various examples in support of these two arguments, from which three important ideas emerged. First, it is difficult to be transparent with complicated models and, hence, simple rules should be used. Second, whether (big) data can lead to an ‘a‑theoretical’ space as machine learning has been criticized for being ‘a‑theoretical’. Third, transparency and accuracy need not have a trade-off — it was possible to be both transparent and being accurate.
Prof. T T Niranjan, Associate Professor at the Indian Institute of Technology (Bombay), delivered a lecture titled “Crying Wolf and a Knowing Wink: Deliberate bilateral information distortion in supply chains” for the third session.
Prof. Niranjan addressed the cohort on how the Nash Equilibrium arises out of information asymmetry in supply chains. Here, one party is strategic, and the other party knows that it has been receiving distorted information. He said the phenomenon was called the “bullwhip effect” and explained it through Supply Line Underweighting (SLU) which occurs at an aggregate level. However, explanation at an aggregate level could be misleading as there could be a drastic divergence at individual levels, Prof. Niranjan explained.
The discussion then moved on to bilateral information discounting, which explained the phenomenon at an individual level. Prof. Niranjan further spoke about related propositions that were converted to hypotheses and were tested in controlled lab environments.
The day was concluded by Prof. Madhu Veeraraghavan, Director – TAPMI, who conducted an academic writing workshop on “How to get published in a peer-reviewed journal”. Participants received “pitching sheets” with subheads such as a working title, a basic research question, and contributions, which they were required to fill with details. These sheets were then used for conducting the workshop. Prof. Veeraraghavan demonstrated the importance of having catchy titles and highlighting the contributions and key motivations behind research projects. He elaborated on the strategies on how to get research projects successfully published in good quality journals. According to him, the abstract should be short and concise, the core study of the paper should emerge early on, and most importantly, the contribution of the research work should be clearly defined as it’s one of the primary criteria which decides the publication of the paper in a top-tier journal.